UFC Fight Week 12/10-12/12
Main Event(s) Breakdown/Info
(VanZant vs Namajunas, Edgar vs Mendes, Aldo vs McGregor)
By: Dylan Smith (@FightMartian)
With the holiday season upon us there is plenty to look forward to. Great food, time with family, and of course Christmas. However, for UFC fans everywhere December gives us a whole different reason to be excited. Some of the best matchups in UFC history will take place in the years last month as the UFC has gone out of their way to end 2015 with the most exciting events of the year. Rivalries will be settled, champions will be crowned and stars will be born all within the next two weeks.
This week in particular will feature three UFC fight cards in three days, each with their own epic main event(s).
The fun begins on Thursday with UFC Fight Night on Fight Pass which features two of the UFCs youngest and fastest rising female stars in Paige VanZant and Rose Namajunas. Then, Friday is The Ultimate Fighter Finale which is headlined by one of the best matchups in featherweight history, Frankie Edgar vs Chad Mendes. And of course Saturday night brings us UFC 194 only on pay per view, with Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor finally settling their rivalry for the featherweight title in the biggest fight of the year.
I will be providing a detailed breakdown and prediction of each main event fight of this weeks cards below.
UFC Fight Night (Fight Pass)
Thursday, December 10, 2015
The Chealsea at The Cosmopolitan
Las Vegas, Nevada
Paige "12 Gauge" VanZant (6-1)
vs Rose "Thug" Namajunas (4-2)
In the youngest main event in UFC history, VanZant (21) and Namajunas (23) will collide in what should be a great display of the kind of talent the future holds for the women's strawweight division. Both fighters are budding stars and have already come a long way in their short careers as they are legit top 10 fighters in the division.
This matchup is intriguing because although Rose is the more accomplished fighter (higher ranked, TUF runner up) she comes in as a slight underdog. That may have something to do with the hype behind Paige VanZant as she is now one of the UFCs most marketable athletes and they have really invested in promoting her to the mainstream media. I think Rose is being undervalued here because if you look at the fight stylistically I see Rose as a horrible matchup for "PVZ".
VanZant is a well rounded pressure fighter, she comes forward and backs her opponents into the cage and looks to create scrambles that end with her in an advantageous position where she can use ground and pound to either finish or create an opening for a submission. This is where I see her getting into some trouble as Rose is a submission specialist and will be looking to capitalize on the scrambles VanZant creates by hunting for armbars and chokes from any position. However, a sub is no lock as PVZ is extremely scrappy and will be tough to submit early on. I do think that PVZ will have her moments in the fight as I see it going back and forth because they are fairly even in skill level. Ultimately though I am banking on a submission by Namajunas as I think Paige will rely heavily on her work rate and aggressiveness which will eventually get her caught in a bad position.
Prediction: Namajunas via Sub (2nd round)
The Ultimate Fighter Finale- Team McGregor vs Team Faber
Friday, December 11, 2015
The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan
Las Vegas, Nevada
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (18-4-1)
vs Chad "Money" Mendes (14-3)
Former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar will look to solidify his spot as the rightful number 1 contender when he takes on fellow top contender Chad Mendes in what should be a barn burner of a fight. These two men are undoubtedly the two best featherweight fighters not named Jose Aldo or Conor McGregor.
Chad Mendes comes into this fight after a losing effort against Conor McGregor as a short notice replacement for the UFC 189 main event. He is 1-2 in his last three fights but has remained undefeated in non title fights going 17-0 in his career. Mendes is one of if not the best wrestler in the 145 lb division and also might be the hardest hitter as 7 of his wins have come by knockout.
Frankie Edgar has a very similar style to Mendes although Edgar prefers volume punches in combination along with some of the best footwork in all of MMA. "The Answer" also has some great wrestling skills as his grappling helped carry him through his run as the lightweight champion.
This is a tough matchup to call as both fighters are so evenly matched in skill I think it will come down to who is able to execute their gameplan most effectively.
The added element of this being a 5 round fight adds some intrigue into how this fight will play out as both fighters will have plenty of time to feel each other out and build momentum as the rounds go by. However, I think early on Mendes could take the first couple of rounds as Edgar is a bit of a slow starter and Mendes is most dangerous in the first and second round when he still has plenty of power behind his punches. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mendes actually drop or seriously hurt Edgar before he can establish his timing.
Ultimately though, I think Edgar will be able to recover as he has shown the ability time and time again to get himself out of danger and come back even stronger. If he can survive the initial onslaught of Mendes, I think Edgar will really be able to take over once it gets to the third round. Edgar's cardio is second to none as he thrives in long fights and he always gets stronger as the fight goes on.
I think Edgar will nullify the power of Mendes by weathering the storm of the early rounds and begin to take over once he finds his timing and will wear Mendes out by using his footwork to set up boxing combinations and may even mix in a takedown or two. This is where Edgar will impose his will and win the later rounds in his usual gritty fashion and hopefully secure a title shot by winning a close decision.
Prediction: Edgar by split decision
UFC 194
Saturday, December 12, 2015
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada
(C) Jose Aldo (25-1)
vs Conor "Notorious" McGregor (18-2)
After nearly a year in the making, Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor will finally happen in the main event of UFC 194. This is undoubtedly the most anticipated fight of 2015 and it's only fitting that it will be the last fight of the year on the UFCs biggest fight card.
It is rare that a fight is considered a fight of the year candidate before it even happens but if the fight is anything like the build up then this will go down as one of the best fights in UFC history.
Originally, Aldo vs McGregor was supposed to happen at UFC 189 but after Aldo pulled out due to injury the fight was changed to McGregor taking on Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. McGregor came out on top in that one by a devastating second round TKO and further elevated his status as a UFC superstar. More importantly though, McGregor was able to silence the doubters who claimed the UFC was protecting him by avoiding a match up with a wrestler.
Aldo on the other hand, hasn't fought in over a year and will have to overcome the incredible momentum built up by McGregor in his absence. Known for his laser like focus and quiet intensity, it has been 10 years since Aldo was defeated for the first and only time in his career. Now, currently ranked as the UFCs #1 pound-for-pound fighter and the only featherweight champion in UFC history, Aldo will have to shake off the ring rust quickly in this one and pick up where he left off as one of the most dominant fighters in MMA history.
As for the fight itself, stylistically it seems to favor McGregor as he is a rangy southpaw with an impeccable understanding of distance and movement. McGregor will also be the bigger fighter between the two and possesses great speed for a featherweight his size. Honestly, I'm expecting a lot of trash talk from "The Notorious" from the start of the fight after seeing the success he had using that tactic against Mendes. McGregors game plan will be centered around his ability to move forward and pressure Aldo, forcing him to move backwards and against the cage where Conor does his best work unleashing combinations.
However, this game plan will only work if Aldo actually does move backwards which is something we are not used to seeing from the champion who usually applies a more tactical, forward based approach. The X factor in this fight are the vicious leg kicks of Aldo. Undoubtedly his best weapon, Aldo should look to chop away early and often as McGregor stands southpaw which will leave his lead leg ripe for the picking. He has nearly crippled opponents in the past using that technique and it could be his key to victory in this one.
This is an incredibly tough fight to call as the unpredictability factory in this one is sky high with so much emotion and pressure being carried into the fight by both fighters. I think the first round could set the tone of the fight, as I stated previously I think McGregor will come out talking trash and trying to clown Aldo and it may backfire as Aldo is very disciplined and unlikely to participate in any taunting. This could create openings for Aldo to get his timing early and feel out McGregor and perhaps steal the first round. After that I think it will be all about who is able to control the octagon. McGregor does his best work moving forward, throwing combinations and getting his opponents off balance by using angles to attack with precision boxing. Aldo will look to keep McGregor away by establishing his range using his jab and patented leg kicks.
This will definitely be a back and forth affair with both fighters having their moments and I think the judges will have a tough time choosing a clear cut winner. Ultimately though, Aldo is the #1 pound for pound fighter for a reason and will have to be beat decisively in order to lose his championship. I don't think there will be a finish in this fight as neither fighter has ever been in any real danger of losing by KO or sub so it seems this fight will be decided by who is able to dig deep in the later rounds and solidify themselves as the winner. I'm taking Aldo based on his proven ability in the past to adapt to any style opponent. I think he will get the job done in a razor close, fight of the year decision.
Prediction: Jose Aldo by split decision
