UFC 202: McGregor vs Diaz
Fantasy MMA DraftKings Lineup Advice
By: Dylan Smith
UFC 202 could go down as the biggest PPV in UFC history once the dust settles Saturday night. Anytime "Notorious" Conor McGregor is on the bill you know it will be a blockbuster and his main event fight against Nate Diaz is lining up to be the biggest one yet. The nights card is highly anticipated with a main card featuring perhaps the most exciting on paper matchup available in the LHW division, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson vs Glover Teixera. Also, Rick Story takes on Donald Cerrone in a welterweight bout that almost guarantees tons of violence. Speaking of violence, Cody Garbrandt also fights as he takes on Takeya Mizugaki in the featured prelim bout on FS1. If your a fan of fighting and you like to watch great fights, UFC 202 is the fight to watch.
There is tons to offer from a fantasy perspective and I will be breaking down the fighters you should or shouldn't have in your lineups and why. So put your money where your mouth is and throw down a few bucks to test your MMA knowledge against me and the thousands of other players who will be trying to cash out this weekend!
Locks
These are the picks in your lineup that have a higher price tag but also have a high chance of winning and producing a finish that makes it worth it. You want to use these picks as the "anchor" of your lineups.
Conor McGregor ($10,400)
We all know how the last fight went when late-replacement opponent Diaz pulled off the unthinkable and finished McGregor with a rear naked choke in the 2nd round of the main event of UFC 196. Things are much different this time around as McGregor has tailor-made his camp around his opponent for the first time, bringing in tall rangy boxers to mimic Diaz' style and BJJ ace Dillion Danis to help with his grappling. McGregor has pulled out all the stops for this training camp and has reportedly spent over six figures in preparation for the fight which makes it the most expensive training camp ever for a MMA bout.
I think Conor learned from his mistakes in the last fight and will not underestimate Diaz this time and will also look to take his time and not go for the knockout early like he did last time which caused him to gas out early and allow Diaz to take over. Also, I think range will play a key factor in this fight and look for Conor to fight much closer than last time while he picks his shots and breaks Diaz down over time. I wouldn't be surprised if he lands a spinning head kick along the way as that is something he has been working on in his sparring leading up. While I'm not sure of McGregor getting a KO finish because of the notoriously iron chin of Diaz I do think he will land tons of significant strikes and get Diaz on his heels by mixing up his strikes. All of this means Conor McGregor will be racking up points for your lineup while fighting a strategic yet frenetic fight that will be sure to live up to the hype.
Prediction: Conor McGregor by decision
Cody Garbrandt ($10,300)
Cody Garbrandt has proven to be a fantasy MMA stud, rattling off three KO wins in his past four fights and carries a huge wave of momentum into this fight after his most recent KO victory over Thomas Almeida. Garbrandt will take on savvy veteran Takeya Mizugaki in the featured prelim bout and look to push his rising star higher with another knockout win. "No Love" has all the tools to win this fight in style, his boxing is crisp and he is probably the hardest hitter in the division, giving him a big advantage on the feet against Mizugaki. As long as he doesn't get carried away and make any silly mistakes, Garbrandt should win this fight emphatically. Mizugaki has lost two out of his last three and hasn't looked the same since being finished by Dominik Cruz back in 2014. I think Garbrandt will look to take out Mizugaki early and set claim as the new number one contender in the bantamweight division.
Prediction: Garbrandt by 1st round KO
Conor McGregor ($10,400)
We all know how the last fight went when late-replacement opponent Diaz pulled off the unthinkable and finished McGregor with a rear naked choke in the 2nd round of the main event of UFC 196. Things are much different this time around as McGregor has tailor-made his camp around his opponent for the first time, bringing in tall rangy boxers to mimic Diaz' style and BJJ ace Dillion Danis to help with his grappling. McGregor has pulled out all the stops for this training camp and has reportedly spent over six figures in preparation for the fight which makes it the most expensive training camp ever for a MMA bout.
I think Conor learned from his mistakes in the last fight and will not underestimate Diaz this time and will also look to take his time and not go for the knockout early like he did last time which caused him to gas out early and allow Diaz to take over. Also, I think range will play a key factor in this fight and look for Conor to fight much closer than last time while he picks his shots and breaks Diaz down over time. I wouldn't be surprised if he lands a spinning head kick along the way as that is something he has been working on in his sparring leading up. While I'm not sure of McGregor getting a KO finish because of the notoriously iron chin of Diaz I do think he will land tons of significant strikes and get Diaz on his heels by mixing up his strikes. All of this means Conor McGregor will be racking up points for your lineup while fighting a strategic yet frenetic fight that will be sure to live up to the hype.
Prediction: Conor McGregor by decision
Cody Garbrandt ($10,300)
Cody Garbrandt has proven to be a fantasy MMA stud, rattling off three KO wins in his past four fights and carries a huge wave of momentum into this fight after his most recent KO victory over Thomas Almeida. Garbrandt will take on savvy veteran Takeya Mizugaki in the featured prelim bout and look to push his rising star higher with another knockout win. "No Love" has all the tools to win this fight in style, his boxing is crisp and he is probably the hardest hitter in the division, giving him a big advantage on the feet against Mizugaki. As long as he doesn't get carried away and make any silly mistakes, Garbrandt should win this fight emphatically. Mizugaki has lost two out of his last three and hasn't looked the same since being finished by Dominik Cruz back in 2014. I think Garbrandt will look to take out Mizugaki early and set claim as the new number one contender in the bantamweight division.
Prediction: Garbrandt by 1st round KO
Tim Means ($10,900)
One of the most underrated welterweights in the division, Tim "Dirty Bird" Means makes his return after serving a suspension for violating the USADA anti-doping policy back in Febuary. Means will look to make it two in a row as he is a huge favorite over UFC newcomer Sabah Homasi who takes the fight on short notice after Sean Strickland pulled out due to injury. Means will utilize his underrated striking to lead him to victory, using pressure to back Homasi into the cage and unleash his Muay Thai to get a finish. Means is a true veteran with 33 fight on his resume and I don't think Homasi will give him a look he isn't prepared for. Means is a great addition to your lineup as I think his chances for a finish are high and he will go under owned in most games in favor of more popular picks.
Prediction: Means by TKO round 2
One of the most underrated welterweights in the division, Tim "Dirty Bird" Means makes his return after serving a suspension for violating the USADA anti-doping policy back in Febuary. Means will look to make it two in a row as he is a huge favorite over UFC newcomer Sabah Homasi who takes the fight on short notice after Sean Strickland pulled out due to injury. Means will utilize his underrated striking to lead him to victory, using pressure to back Homasi into the cage and unleash his Muay Thai to get a finish. Means is a true veteran with 33 fight on his resume and I don't think Homasi will give him a look he isn't prepared for. Means is a great addition to your lineup as I think his chances for a finish are high and he will go under owned in most games in favor of more popular picks.
Prediction: Means by TKO round 2
Value Plays
These are picks who have a lower price tag and are considered "live dogs" and could go under owned in games due to unfavorable odds or public perception. These picks can make or break your lineup.
Rick Story ($9,400)
Rick Story faces a tough test against Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and is a slight betting underdog. He has competed at welterweight his entire career and Cerrone will be competing at 170 for only the second time in his career. Story has a wrestle-box style that he has effectively used against strikers his entire career and I think it is a style that will give Cerrone problems. Cerrone does his best work moving forward and using his kickboxing but I think that will be a tough task against a pressure fighter like Story who continuously moves forward and likes to use the clinch to dirty box. Story will look to wear down Cowboy in what will most certainly be a brawl and a fight of the night contender.
Prediction: Rick Story by decision
Glover Teixeira ($8,700)
The co-main event of the evening is what I would label as a BANGER. As far as match ups in the LHW division Teixeira vs Johnson is the most exciting fight possible in my opinion and one I might be looking forward to the most. I think Teixiera is being severely underrated in this matchup and has a style that could potentially give Johnson some problems. While both men are knockout artist, Glover possesses a more versatile skill set with his grappling and submissions but I think his biggest advantage lies in his cardio which is something Johnson has always struggled with. If both men can survive the first initial exchanges with their heads still intact, I think we will see Glover start to implement a gameplan similar to the one we saw Daniel Cormier use against Johnson. Teixeira is the best value play of the night and I think his well rounded skill set- particularly his submission prowess- will lead him to victory.
Prediction: Glover Teixiera by Sub
Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Rick Story ($9,400)
Rick Story faces a tough test against Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and is a slight betting underdog. He has competed at welterweight his entire career and Cerrone will be competing at 170 for only the second time in his career. Story has a wrestle-box style that he has effectively used against strikers his entire career and I think it is a style that will give Cerrone problems. Cerrone does his best work moving forward and using his kickboxing but I think that will be a tough task against a pressure fighter like Story who continuously moves forward and likes to use the clinch to dirty box. Story will look to wear down Cowboy in what will most certainly be a brawl and a fight of the night contender.
Prediction: Rick Story by decision
Glover Teixeira ($8,700)
The co-main event of the evening is what I would label as a BANGER. As far as match ups in the LHW division Teixeira vs Johnson is the most exciting fight possible in my opinion and one I might be looking forward to the most. I think Teixiera is being severely underrated in this matchup and has a style that could potentially give Johnson some problems. While both men are knockout artist, Glover possesses a more versatile skill set with his grappling and submissions but I think his biggest advantage lies in his cardio which is something Johnson has always struggled with. If both men can survive the first initial exchanges with their heads still intact, I think we will see Glover start to implement a gameplan similar to the one we saw Daniel Cormier use against Johnson. Teixeira is the best value play of the night and I think his well rounded skill set- particularly his submission prowess- will lead him to victory.
Prediction: Glover Teixiera by Sub
Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Raquel Pennington takes on Elizabeth Phillips as a sizable favorite (-260) and only carries a price tag of $9,200 which puts her in prime position as a value play. Pennington has faced some of the best the division has to offer and is only getting better with every fight. Phillips is no push over though and is looking to make a statement of her own and while she may have some significant moments in the fight I think the UFC experience and skill set of Pennington will prove to be too much. Look for Pennington to dominate a decision victory lead by her ever improving boxing I think she will rack up significant strikes and could be a lower owned option to add to your lineup.
Avoid
These picks may be odds on favorites or carry a high price tag but ultimately not provide enough upside to make a huge difference in your lineup due to an unfriendly fantasy style.
Neil Magny ($10,500)
Magny faces a tough test in Lorenz Larkin in a fight where the winner could draw a top caliber opponent in the welterweight division. Magny is extremely tall for the weight class, standing at 6'3 with a 81 inch reach but surprisingly isn't known for his striking but rather uses his grappling against opponents to wear them down and ride them out. He has a long night ahead of him against Larkin who has great takedown defense, but I think ultimately Magny will get him down and use dominate position to get a decision win in a non fantasy friendly fight.
Prediction: Magny by Decision
Artem Lobov $(10,800)
Lobov is best known for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs Team Faber as McGregor's right hand man where he proved he is extremely tough and durable but ultimately may not have the skill set to compete at the highest level. He possesses a 12-12-1 record and with a such a high price tag of $10,800 I think his inconsistency doesn't warrant enough upside to add him to your lineup even though he will be facing newcomer Chris Avila. Avila is a talented young prospect and will be the more well rounded fighter coming into the bout and will look to make a statement in his UFC debut.
Prediction: Avila by Sub
Neil Magny ($10,500)
Magny faces a tough test in Lorenz Larkin in a fight where the winner could draw a top caliber opponent in the welterweight division. Magny is extremely tall for the weight class, standing at 6'3 with a 81 inch reach but surprisingly isn't known for his striking but rather uses his grappling against opponents to wear them down and ride them out. He has a long night ahead of him against Larkin who has great takedown defense, but I think ultimately Magny will get him down and use dominate position to get a decision win in a non fantasy friendly fight.
Prediction: Magny by Decision
Artem Lobov $(10,800)
Lobov is best known for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs Team Faber as McGregor's right hand man where he proved he is extremely tough and durable but ultimately may not have the skill set to compete at the highest level. He possesses a 12-12-1 record and with a such a high price tag of $10,800 I think his inconsistency doesn't warrant enough upside to add him to your lineup even though he will be facing newcomer Chris Avila. Avila is a talented young prospect and will be the more well rounded fighter coming into the bout and will look to make a statement in his UFC debut.
Prediction: Avila by Sub
DraftKings Lineup
Conor McGregor ($10,400)
Cody Garbrandt (10,300)
Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Tim Means ($10,900)
Glover Teixera ($8,700)
Tim Means ($10,900)
Glover Teixera ($8,700)
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