Wednesday, March 11, 2015

UFC 185 Main Card Breakdown/Predictions

By: Dylan Smith (@FightMartian)



This Saturday the UFC returns to the Lone Star State here in my neck of the woods, Dallas Texas, and with them they bring in a few stars of their own in a stacked pay-per-view lineup featuring two title fights and some important contenders bouts. In the first championship match of the night we get to see Carla Esparza defend her women's strawweight title for the first time against confident contender Joanna Jedrejczyk coming all the way from Poland. Before the dust can even settle from that fight, we get to see lightweight champion Anthony "Showtime" Pettis attempt to live up to his nickname by taking on top contender Rafael Dos Anjos. Also, former champion and Dallas' own Johny Hendricks will look to take his first steps back to reclaiming that title in a very tough match up against one of the best in the division, Matt Brown.
The UFC has done a great job once again in the match making department as this card is full of great matchup's and popular fighters from top to bottom. So if you like MMA even a little bit, then you will want to tune in. 

Below I will be breaking down and making my picks for each fight on the main card. 



Henry "The Messenger" Cejudo (7-0)
vs 
Chris "The Kamikaze" Cariaso (17-6)

Breakdown: Chris Cariaso comes into this fight after suffering a defeat in his last outing to dominant flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Cariaso has a well rounded style that compliments his fast paced output and also possesses above average takedown defense. "The Kamikaze" will need to use every bit of that takedown defense to keep this fight standing and should look to get his hands going early by using punches in bunches to get Cejudo out of his comfort zone . Cejudo however, will most definitely be looking to take the fight to the mat early and often as he holds a huge advantage in that department due to his pedigree in wrestling, winning a gold medal in the 2008 Olympics. Cejudo has all the makings of a future champion in the UFC but has recently been held back by his inability to safely make the 125lb limit so questions remain just how good Cejudo will be after a grueling weight cut that left him unable to compete during his last scheduled fight. 

Prediction: Cariaso will be a great test to see where the young prospect Cejudo stacks up in the flyweight division. I think he has the right skill set to make this a tough stylistic matchup against Cejudo due to his well rounded style and experience in the octagon against some of the division's best. That being said, once Cejudo gets that first takedown (and he will) it will only build his confidence from there and begin to wear down Cariaso with repeated takedowns. This gameplan will allow him to dictate the pace of the fight and control where it takes place. 

Cejudo By Decision 



Roy "Big Country" Nelson (20-9)
vs
Alistair "The Reem" Overeem (38-14-1)

Breakdown: The breakdown for this fight is as simple as it gets. Someone is getting knocked out. Quickly. Both these heavyweights possess the power to KO any man walking the planet and I think we will see that power on full display come Saturday. As a former K1 kickboxing champion, Alistair Overeem will possess the technical edge in this fight, but will need to mix it up and use a very strategic game plan in order to avoid the extremely dangerous overhand right of Roy Nelson. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Overeem attempt a grapple heavy gameplan in order to nullify Nelson's striking game and perhaps use takedowns to get Nelson on his back and dish out some ground and pound. Roy Nelson on the other hand will have a much more simple way of thinking, land his patented overhand right and walk away with his hand raised. Nelson is one of the UFC's most dangerous knockout artist and can take it as well as he can dish it out. 

Prediction: Overeem has proven he is a world class kickboxer by beating some of the very best pure strikers in the world. However, after a lifetime of fighting powerful men in both MMA and kickboxing, Overeems chin has suffered the consequences along the way. It's no secret that "The Reem" can no longer take the punishment he used to be able to and without that he has lost 3 out of his past 5 fights by way of KO. It's never good to bet on a fighter who only has a "punchers chance" but in this case that's exactly what I am going to do because I truly believe if Nelson is able to land one clean blow, Overeem is going down. On the flip side I believe Nelson can survive an offensive onslaught from Overeem with his iron chin and armored belly and will be able to catch Alistair early on for the first round KO. 

Roy Nelson by KO



Johny "Big Rigg" Hendricks (16-3)
Vs
Matt "The Immortal" Brown (19-12)

Breakdown: In what is my pick for fight of the night we should have a good old fashioned Texas throw down on our hands when these two men meet inside the octagon. Johny Hendricks is out for redemption after losing his welterweight title this past december in a controversial loss to Robbie Lawler and will look to make a serious claim as the rightful number one contender when he takes on Matt Brown. This fight has all the making of an all out war, and I personally cannot wait to see this fight live and in person as both these fighters are two of my current favorites which makes this fight tough for me to call. I basically see this as a knock down drag out war that will see both men have their wills tested while taking the fight everywhere it can go. Hendricks holds the advantage in wrestling and I fully intend on seeing him use that after getting away from it lately in his battles against Robbie Lawler as he had a hard time keeping him down on the ground. Matt Brown will be looking to keep the fight standing and use his unique blend of ruthless Muay Thai combined with his relentless style of pressure that won him 7 fights in a row from 2012-2014.

Prediction: If anyone reading this follows Johny Hendricks on social media then you have seen that he is perhaps in the best shape of his life leading up to this fight. That is actually surprising considering that he dropped famed MMA nutritionist Mike Dolce for this fight and seems to have benefited from the decision. With an easy weight cut ahead and only a three round fight for the first time in 2 years, I think we will see the best version of "Big Rigg" we have ever seen. While beating Matt Brown will be no easy task I think Hendricks will be able to control this fight with his wrestling and use his heavy hands to hurt Brown and maybe even pull off a finish. 

Johny Hendricks by TKO  



(C) Carla "Cookie Monster" Esparza (10-2
Vs
Joanna Jedrejczyk (8-0)

Breakdown: In the first title bout of the night we get only the second Straweight championship fight in UFC history. Defending champ Carla Esparza will be fighting the scary striker Joanna Jedrejczyk in a classic striker vs grappler match-up. Esparza will have a big advantage in the wrestling department and I think that will be her main weapon of choice to lead her to victory due to the grappling inexperience of her opponent. Esparza still has a ways to go before she is considered a great striker but she is more than capable of handling herself standing up with Jedrejczyk even though the challenger will have a slight advantage on the feet. Jedrejczyk will look to sprawl and brawl during this fight, and it would be wise for her to avoid the ground at all costs against Esparza who has slick submissions and a dominant top game. 

Prediction: I really think Carla Esparza is the woman who will capitalize the most on the spotlight brought to women's MMA by Ronda Rousey and the first step to doing that is securing an impressive performance against a tough contender on a big stage like there will be on Saturdays ppv. I see Jedrejczyk coming on strong in the first round, perhaps trying to put Carla away early and maybe even stealing a round, but ultimately she will get taken down and overwhelmed by the relentless pursuit of takedowns by the champion. If "The Cookie Monster" can finish the fight while they're down there then that would just be a cherry on top of what should be a long run on top of the division. 

Carla Esparza by Decision 



(C) Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (18-2)
Vs
Rafael Dos Anjos (23-7) 

Breakdown: Anthony Pettis has shown the world he has video game like capabilities with his flashy striking style and quick submissions during his ascension in the UFC. Now he will look to secure his second title defense against perhaps his most dangerous opponent in Rafael Dos Anjos. RDA is a UFC veteran and has shown very few weaknesses in his game during his 17 fight run with the promotion. I think Pettis will try to kickbox with RDA and look to set him up with traps and then go for the kill. Dos Anjos should have a gameplan similar to Gilbert Melendez when he fought Pettis and not let him get comfortable by using pressure to nullify the flashy, fast strikes of the champion and would be smart to keep the fight at a slower pace to avoid any unpredictable moves from Pettis. Both fighters possess plenty of cardio so them gassing out won't be an issue, but I think if the fight does go to the later rounds then the advantage goes to Pettis due to Dos Anjos never seeing the championship rounds before.

Prediction: This should be a very exciting action packed fight that will give the fans their money's worth. Anthony Pettis is in his prime right now and has taken out his past 4 opponents in the 2nd round or sooner and I think he will keep that streak alive come Saturday. As well rounded as Dos Anjos is, I just don't think he is better than Pettis anywhere the fight goes and he is going to have some trouble with the speed and techniques Pettis will bring to the table. 

Pettis by TKO


Follow me on Twitter @FightMartian for daily MMA updates and more. I will also be in live tweeting from UFC 185 as I will be in attendance! 







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