UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano Main Card Predictions

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano Main Card Predictions 

By: Dylan Smith (@FightMartian) 

UFC 184 was originally slated to be headlined by a middleweight title fight between champ Chris Weidman taking on Vitor Belfort but with Weidman suffering a rib injury the fight became postponed to UFC 187. Now headlined by Rousey vs Zingano (which was the original co-main) and the co-main featuring another female fight in Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington, this shows just how much faith the UFC has in women's MMA and Rousey in particular, to go ahead and double feature the women's fights. This card lacks in star power and has faced criticism for that in the lead up, but with a more in depth look at who is fighting and the stylistic match ups offered, I think we have all the makings for an entertaining night of scraps. Here are my picks for the main card.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson (17-3) 

Vs

Gleison Tibau (33-10)

In a matchup of gritty veteran vs hot prospect this main card opener should be the perfect way to kick off the PPV. TUF 13 winner Tony Ferguson has been on a roll lately, going 4-0 since losing to Michael Johnson in 2012 and posting an impressive 7-1 UFC record since his debut. Ferguson will have his hands full taking on Gleison Tibau who is one of the UFC's most tenured fighters and is a true veteran of the sport with over 40 professional fights and riding a nice 3 fight win streak. I'm going with Ferguson is this fight, due to his physical advantages over Tibau (reach, height, speed) and his ability to blend wrestling and striking to keep the Brazilian guessing. Tibau will come out aggressive and it will be up to Ferguson to weather the storm and test his opponents cardio, perhaps looking for a late fight finish. 

Prediction: Tony Ferguson by submission

Alan "Brahma" Jaboun (10-3)

Vs

Richard "Filthy" Walsh (8-2)

Alan Jaboun is a 10th planet BJJ brown belt under Eddie Bravo and after suffering a loss in his last outing, he will look to get back in the win column against Richard Walsh. Walsh was a contestant on TUF Nations: Canada vs Australia and made it to the semi-finals and has since posted a 1-1 UFC record to match his opponent. This should be a fun scrap between two young fighters looking to make a name for themselves on the PPV main card. I think these guys will look to put on a show and decide to trade punches until someone goes down, which is why I'm taking Jaboun in this one. Training at Blackhouse with some of the best fighters in the world he should have the striking advantage as well as the grappling advantage just in case the fight happens to go there. 

Prediction: Alan Jaboun by TKO

Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger (29-9)

Vs

Josh Koscheck (17-8)

With a combined 39 fights in the UFC between these two men, this fight is a true testament of longevity and consistency in a day and age where fighters come and go through the revolving door that is the UFC's roster. Stylistically, Ellenberger and Koscheck are mirror images of each other, both are wrestlers with wicked right hands that they use to put to sleep many an opponent. This fight might come down to who is the hungrier/healthier fighter in this stage of his career and in my opinion that is Jake Ellenberger. Koscheck on the other hand has had his motivation questioned and most likely took this fight to avoid ending a great career on 3 straight losses. As for the fight itself I'm not expecting a barn burner but definitely an interesting clash of styles that will be fun to watch. Ellenberger should be able to avoid the wrestling of Koscheck with his 89% takedown defense (via fightnomics) should Kos feel like taking the fight to the mat and "The Juggernaut" will look to counter the big right hand of Koscheck with flurries of his own. 

Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by Decision

Raquel "Rocky" Pennington (5-4)

Vs

Holly "The Preachers Daughter" Holm (7-0)

In the nights co-main event we witness the debut of the much hyped former 3 division boxing world champion Holly Holm. She will be taking on The Ultimate Fighter veteran Raquel Pennington. This will be a great first test for Holm to test her skills against a gritty UFC caliber opponent that will by no means be a walk in the park. A lot of people are expecting Holm to run through Pennington and prove to be the next top contender but I don't think it will be that easy for the former boxing champ. Pennington has proven she is game to throw down with anyone, and what she lacks in refined technique she makes up for with toughness and a will to win. I still think Holm has what it takes to pull it off, as she no doubt possesses the skills to contend for a world championship one day but I see her having a tough time with Pennington early on in the fight as she adjusts to the octagon jitters and perhaps gets off to a slow start. 

Prediction: Holly Holm by Decision

(C) "Rowdy" Ronda Rousey (10-0)

Vs

Cat "Alpha" Zingano (9-0)

After a tumultuous year of recovery from ACL surgery, Cat Zingano gets her long awaited title shot against Ronda Rousey and the chance to prove she is the best female fighter in the world. Zingano is no doubt Rousey's toughest opponent to date, possessing a blend of size speed and power only matched by Rousey herself in the division. This fight should be intense and wild and I think people will be surprised by how well Zingano actually matches up with Rousey in terms of athleticism. The only downfall I see is the fact that Zingano is a proven slow starter in her fights. She has shown to be vulnerable in the opening round of fights and always gets stronger as the fight goes on, finishing 6 of her 9 opponents in the second or third round. Against Rousey though who has finished every single opponent, a slow start will almost guarantee another arm collected on the champions wall. "Rowdy" is known for hasty first round exits, finishing 9 out of 10 opponents in the first 5 mins and 7 out of 10 in UNDER 1 MINUTE. That is insane. 

If Zingano can wake up and avoid the champions first round onslaught and force her to the later rounds, she should be able to keep this fight competitive and may even posses an advantage as there are still questions surrounding the cardio of Rousey. 

I do think Cat will escape that first round but not unscathed, most likely she will be fending off sub attempts and defending throws, but with Rousey's near perfect judo technique it will be almost impossible to avoid every takedown attempt. I think this fight will go a lot like Rousey vs Tate II but with Zingano having better fight IQ and trying to avoid the strengths of Rousey and trying to use a kickboxing based game plan to get the champion out of her comfort zone. That will only last for so long though as Rousey taking her down is ultimately inevitable. Once down there Rousey will capitalize on any mistake made by Zingano and sink in the fight ending submission. 

Prediction: Ronda Rousey Retains Title by Submission

Follow me on Twitter @FightMartian and let me know if you agree or disagree with my picks. Feedback is appreciated! 

Watch: Countdown to UFC 184