By: Dylan Smith (@FightMartian)
UFC 200.
It's finally here, the biggest and baddest fight card in UFC history. The stakes will be higher than ever as millions of people around the world will congregate around their TV screens to witness Mixed Martial Arts at its highest level. This card literally has something for everyone. The lineup of fighters includes multiple former UFC champions, future hall of famers, Ultimate Fighter winners, and even a former WWE champion.
Of course, it wouldn't be a UFC event if there wasn't some last minute changes to the card. Everyone knows by now that Jon Jones will not be competing in the main event against Daniel Cormier due to being flagged for a potential doping violation from a test in June. He has since been replaced by Anderson Silva who will now fight Cormier at LHW in a non-title 3 round fight. The nights new main event will now be Meisha Tate vs Amanda Nunes for the UFC women's bantamweight championship with Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt serving as the co-main event. Once the dust settles from this mega-event, MMA and the UFC may never be the same.
From a fantasy perspective you couldn't ask for a card that is more split down the middle. With so many top fighters matched against each other there are very few gimme fights on this card which means you will need a little bit of luck (as always) to hit it big on DraftKings this weekend. Luckily, I am here to help and I am going to create a lineup specifically for Draftkings MMA using three categories (locks, avoid, value plays) that you can choose to play or just create your own based off the information provided.
Locks
Daniel Cormier (C) ($11,000)
DC has been through a whirlwind of emotion the past few days due to Jon Jones being pulled from their main event fight on Wednesday. However, the UFC put up the spider signal and Anderson Silva answered and will now step in to take on DC. The UFC isn't doing Silva any favors as this is a great stylistic matchup for DC as he is a power wrestler and will look to exploit that weakness in Silva's game with takedowns and ground and pound. Even though Silva will forever go down as one of the greatest to ever step in the octagon, he is not the fighter he once was. Cormier will look to make a statement and solidify himself as the true undisputed light heavyweight champion as he puts the Jon Jones rivalry behind him.
Prediction: Cormier by TKO rd 3
Meisha Tate (C) ($10,700)
As the newly minted main event of UFC 200 the confidence of Meisha Tate is sky high. Tate has all the momentum in the world coming into this fight and has really come into her own as a fighter putting all of her skills together at a championship level. Nunes will not go down without a fight though and will likely come out guns blazing against Tate and look for a finish early. However, Tate is especially great at weathering storms as she has shown throughout her career and will have to do the same here. Tate will try to make this a ugly fight by fighting close range with Nunes and wearing her out as Nunes is known to gas out after the early rounds. Tate will take over once she settles in and should be able to dominate the later rounds en route to the biggest victory of her career.
Prediction: Tate by Dec
Gegard Mousasi ($10,300)
Unfortunately for Mousasi he did not get the fight with DC he was campaigning for and will stick to his original fight against Thiago Santos. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Mousasi as he has a favorable matchup and will have the chance to get a signature win on the biggest stage on them all. Santos is a very dangerous Muay Thai striker and will look to keep the fight standing while Mousasi is the more well rounded of the two. With nearly 50 fights to his resume, Mousasi is one of the best in the world and has seen it all. Mousasi has more ways to win and always excels when his opponents bring the fight to him. I think Mousasi will look to set up his ground game where he has a big advantage and look to sink in an early submission.
Prediction: Mousasi by sub rd 1
Value Plays
Jim Miller ($10,800)
Jim Miller ($10,800)
You know this is a stacked card when two established veterans like Jim Miller and Takanori Gomi are the curtain jerkers. This will be a great way to set the tone for the evening as this is a serious fight of the night contender. Gomi is a legend and pioneer in MMA but the past few years have been rough for him. He is well past his prime he has elected to adopt a brawling style which has not served him well. Miller is in the twilight of his career as well but still has enough in the tank to compete at a high level. Miller will look to make this an ugly fight and keep a high pace against Gomi where he will wear him down with scrambles and clinch work while attacking with submissions on the ground.
Prediction: Miller by submission rd 2
Travis Browne ($8,200)
Browne faces the toughest challenge of his career as he takes on former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez to open up the main card. On the surface it seems like Browne is at a disadvantage against one of the all time greats in Velasquez. However, after being riddled with injuries the past couple of years questions remain about the health of Velasquez and the toll the injuries have taken on his body. I am calling upset on this one as I think Browne will come out and use his athleticism and major size advantage to fight off the initial takedowns of Cain and look to catch him with a big shot to end the fight early.
Prediction: Browne by TKO rd 1
Brock Lesnar ($9,000)
Brock Lesnar returns to the UFC after a 5 year hiatus to take on former K-1 champion Mark Hunt in a special attraction fight that is sure to satisfy the pallet of fight fans across the world. This is a fight where truly anything can happen, it is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. The clash of styles make this a hard fight to pick but if you take a closer look you see that Hunt has a major issue against grapplers as he has lost 6 of his 10 losses by submission and has struggled to defend the takedown his whole career. If Lesnar can get past the iron fist of Hunt and secure a takedown then Hunt is in for a long night. I think Lesnar is a great pick to add to your lineup because so many will be counting on a Mark Hunt KO that the ownership of Lesnar may be surprisingly low. I think Lesnar will secure a takedown early via bumrish and wear down Mark Hunt with ground and pound before sinking in the submission.
Prediction: Brock Lesnar by sub rd 1
Avoid
TJ Dillashaw ($11,100)
Dillashaw comes into this fight fresh off losing his title to Dominick Cruz in a controversial split decision fight. He takes on Rafael Assuncao in a rematch of another close fight where Assuncao was able to get the decision win in Brazil. Dillashaw is priced very high and is one of the bigger favorites on the card. I think this fight is much tougher than the public thinks and could easily end up as an upset. I'm picking TJ to win but I don't think there is too much upside to having him in your lineup with such a high price tag in a really close match up.
Prediction: TJ by split decision
Jose Aldo ($9,500)
I think there are too many questions about which Jose Aldo we will see compete at UFC 200. Coming off a 13 second KO by Conor McGregor it remains to be seen if Aldo can return to championship form. He takes on Frankie Edgar for the Interim UFC featherweight championship in a rematch from 2012 where he edged out a decision victory to retain the title. However, Edgar has been on a monster tear and has all the momentum in the world coming into this fight. This should be another close one but I think Edgar will be able to use his grappling to pull off a win and send Aldo to the lightweight division.
Prediction: Edgar by decision
Johny Hendricks ($10,100)
Johny Hendricks just doesn't seem like the same fighter he was a few years ago when he was tearing through the welterweight division en route to capturing the title. After being knocked out by Stephen Thompson in his last fight it will be interesting to see how he approaches his fight against the young contender Kelvin Gastelum. I'm guessing Hendricks goes back to his wrestling roots and uses takedowns and top control to smother Gastelum and get back in the win column. Hendricks pulls off the win but not in a very fantasy-friendly way using clinch work and takedowns to secure the victory.
Prediction: Hendricks by decision
DraftKings Lineup
Daniel Cormier ($11,000)
Meisha Tate ($10,700)
Travis Browne ($8,200)
Gerard Mousasi ($10,300)
Brock Lesnar ($9,000)
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