UFC 193 Fantasy Kountermove/DraftKings MMA Lineup Advice
By: Dylan Smith (@FightMartian)
UFC 193 is lining up to be a blockbuster hit, all the way from the land down under in Melbourne, Australia the UFC will attempt to set a new attendance record by packing 70,000+ raucous Aussie fans into Etihad Stadium. Headlining the event will be the UFC's biggest most transcendent star, Ronda Rousey along with her strawweight counterpart Joanna Jedrzejczyk as they look to defend their titles against some big underdogs in Holly Holm and Valerie Letourneau. The UFC has done its part promoting this event all over the world and putting together a great lineup of fights that ensure it will be a sure fire hit and all 70,000 fans get their money's worth.
From a fantasy perspective, this card has some truly juicy match ups available and plenty of value across the board with some live dogs and fights that have a high potential of finishes. I will delve deeper into these matchups and provide a lineup that will be playable in both Kountermove and DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups.
I have been playing on sites like Kountermove and DraftKings since early 2012 with profitable success and am now here to provide you with all the knowledge you will need to get some cash in your pocket with a stellar lineup.
I will be breaking down fighters in three categories;
Value Plays
The fighters in this category will be either underdogs or have even odds with a high potential for a finish. These picks are key as they carry lower cap prices and mostly go underused in favor of fighters that are favorites.
Locks
Fighters that are considered "locks" will be the anchor of your lineups. These fighters are the odds on favorite and usually carry a high cap price but justify it with either a finish or high activity which will result in a lot of points.
Avoid
Generally there will be a few fights you want to avoid for fantasy purposes on every UFC card. Fighters that land themselves in this category are usually inconsistent or face an unfavorable matchup that causes them to be irrelevant to fantasy lineups.
Each of these categories will be determined by the fighters matchup and the fantasy value they will provide. Remember, we are talking fantasy points here so even if a fighter is a favorite he/she may not be a good fantasy prospect depending on the style of the fighter. In a fantasy lineup you want fighters that will give you the most bang for your buck with knockouts, submissions, or highly active fighters who may not score a finish but will rack up points based on a high output.
I will create a lineup that will be playable in both Kountermove and DraftKings based off these categories. You can choose to play my exact lineup or just create your own based off the information provided.
Locks
Ronda Rousey (C)
DraftKings ($11,400)
Kountermove ($6,000)
With 11 out of 12 first round finishes in her career there shouldn't be any convincing as to why Rousey should be locked into your lineup. As a 20-1 favorite the oddsmakers are basically guaranteeing a victory for the bantamweight champion. If she does win in usual first round fashion that's an extra 100 points you can add to your lineup.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (C)
DraftKings ($11,300)
Kountermove ($6,100)
As an even bigger betting favorite than Ronda Rousey, Joanna Jedrzejczyk (aka JJ) is also a lock to defend her title successfully on Saturday night. This fight should be fun while it lasts as both women specialize in striking and will not hold back on the feet. That being said, JJ is on another level right now with her striking and has shown to be not only one of the most technically sound women in the UFC but also one of its best overall strikers.
Mark Hunt
DraftKings ($10,500)
Kountermove ($5,300)
This fight has a high probability of ending with a knockout as Mark Hunt and Antonio Silva are capable of finishing the fight at anytime. I'm going with the "Super Samoan" in this one because I just don't think Silva's chin will hold up this time against one of best KO artist in the game. After their first fight Silva failed a drug test for elevated testosterone and hasn't looked the same since. After serving a nine month suspension he has lost by KO to Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir and if he chooses to exchange bombs with Hunt again then he is almost assuredly going down.
Value Plays
Ryan Benoit
DraftKings ($9,400)
Kountermove ($4,900)
Benoit put himself on the map as one of the best prospects of the flyweight division after a TKO win over Sergio Pettis at UFC 190 in Dallas, TX. Although he is a slight underdog against his opponent, Ben Nguyen, Benoit boast a 100% finish rate when he wins and will look to continue that trend come Saturday night. I expect Benoit to pull off the upset and overwhelm Nguyen with his fast paced aggressive style in route to continuing his ascension up the flyweight rankings.
Robert Whittaker
DraftKings ($9,600)
Kountermove ($4,800)
In a potential fight of the night pitting two pure strikers against each other, this fight has a ton of potential value. With 12 of 14 victories coming by KO/submission, I'm going with Whittaker as a contrarian pick because everyone is high on Uriah Hall after his recent upset KO victory over Gegard Mousasi. Hall comes in as a late replacement and is on a two fight win streak but has proved to be inconsistent throughout his UFC career as he has failed to live up to high expectations after coming off the ultimate fighter. I think this is a perfect time to take Whittaker as a slight underdog and capitalize on the Hall hype train.
Dan Kelly
DraftKings ($9,000)
Kountermove ($4,600)
Kelly comes into this fight as a 2-1 underdog against TUF vet Steve Montgomery. Kelly is fresh off his first career loss against the stone handed Sam Alvey and will come into this fight looking to get another win streak going. Specializing in Judo, I think Kelly is more well rounded than Montgomery with his skill set and will be able to control where the fight takes place. The value in Kelly is his submission ability against the much less versed ground game of Montgomery and I think that will be his path to victory Saturday night.
Avoid
Jared Rosholt
DraftKings ($9,500)
Kountermove ($4,600)
Although usually you want to put heavyweights in your fantasy lineup I am fading this fight altogether. Rosholt is a durable wrestler and his fight are generally not fantasy friendly. While his 7-foot opponent Stefan Struve will have a significant advantage on the feet, I think Rosholt will nullify that by keeping the giant Dutchmen off his feet and on his back by attacking relentlessly with takedowns. Rosholt may pull off the victory with this method, but don't expect a ton of points for it.
Anthony Perosh
DraftKings ($8,500)
Kountermove ($4,400)
Perosh returns to his homeland in Australia as a big time underdog against Gian Villante. Perosh didn't look good at all in his last fight out which he lost by TKO and it seems the 43 year olds age might just be catching up to him. Don't be tempted by the low price point on Perosh as I think he is significantly outmatched by his much younger, stronger opponent.
Kyle Noke
DraftKings ($9,500)
Kountermove ($4,700)
Noke is another Australian with an unfavorable matchup. However, it's not so much his opponent that makes Noke a fade in fantasy lineups as it is himself. Noke has failed to impress after returning from a 2 year layoff going 1-1 since with that win coming by split decision in an uneventful fight against Jonavin Webb. As an underdog I don't think there is much value in Noke as a fantasy option because even with a upset victory (most likely by decision) I'm not sure he will return value with his mid price range.
DraftKings Lineup
Ronda Rousey ($11,400)
Robert Whittaker ($9,600)
Dan Kelly ($9,000)
Ryan Benoit ($9,400)
Mark Hunt ($10,500)
Kountermove Lineup
Ronda Rousey ($6,000)
Ryan Benoit ($4,900)
Dan Kelly ($4,600)
Akbarh Arreola ($4,200)
Mark Hunt ($5,300)
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