UFC 192 Fantasy Kountermove/DraftKings MMA Advice
The UFC returns to the lone star state for the second time this year bringing another star studded event to the Texas faithful. This card has plenty of value in terms of entertainment, but the real value is in the fantasy realm where there is real money to be made (as always). If you have never played fantasy MMA do not fret, I have been playing on sites like Kountermove and DraftKings since early 2012 with profitable success and am now here to provide you with all the knowledge you will need to get some cash in your pocket with a stellar lineup.
I will be breaking down fighters in three categories;
Value Plays
The fighters in this category will be either slight underdogs or have even odds with their opponents. These picks are key as they carry lower cap prices and mostly go underused in favor of fighters that are favorites.
Locks
Fighters that are considered "locks" will be the anchor of your lineups. These fighters are the odds on favorite and usually carry a high cap price but justify it with either a finish or high activity which will result in a lot of points.
Avoid
Generally there will be a few fights you want to avoid for fantasy purposes on every UFC card. Fighters that land themselves in this category are usually inconsistent or face an unfavorable matchup that causes them to be irrelevant to fantasy lineups.
Each of these categories will be determined by the fighters matchup and the fantasy value they will provide. Remember, we are talking fantasy points here so even if a fighter is a favorite he/she may not be a good fantasy prospect depending on the style of the fighter. In a fantasy lineup you want fighters that will give you the most bang for your buck with knockouts, submissions, or highly active fighters who may not score a finish but will rack up points based on a high output.
I will create a lineup that will be playable in both Kountermove and DraftKings based off these categories. You can choose to play my exact lineup or just create your own based off the information provided.
Locks
Daniel Cormier (C)
Kountermove ($5,600) DraftKings ($11,000)
On paper this fight looks like a very close matchup due to Gustaffson's big size advantage which has been the focal point of the UFC marketing machine. However, I don't see it as such a huge factor because of Cormier's past as a heavyweight. He has beat and manhandled much larger men like Josh Barnett and Antonio Silva in the past so I don't think the size difference will be as much of a factor as people think. While I don't expect Cormier to score the KO on the big swede, I do think he will put on a wrestling clinic. Gus has proved hard to takedown in the past but he hasn't faced a world class wrestler like Cormier before. After the second round I think Cormier will takeover and start racking up points with relentless takedowns and ground and pound. These fantasy points will add up quickly over five rounds and should add a solid 75+ points to your lineup.
Rose Namajunas
Kountermove ($5,200) DraftKings ($10,600)
Namajunas takes on the overmatched Angela Hill in what should be an entertaining scrap for as long as it lasts. Rose is a rising star who specializes in submissions with a flashy striking attack to back it up and I think she will put her skill set on full display against Hill. While Hill has a solid kickboxing background, she is seriously lacking in the grappling department, which we saw in her last fight against Tecia Torres. I think Namajunas will expose that flaw and look to get this fight to the ground immediately and score the early submission win.
Joseph Benavidez
Kountermove ($5,400) DraftKings ($10,900)
Benavidez has made a name for himself by taking on and defeating some of the very best fighters in the world. He will have to do it again by defeating former title challenger Ali Bagautinov in the opening main card fight. Remember, Bagautinov hasn't fought since losing to champion Demetrious Johnson in which he was suspended a full year after testing positive for EPO. I think the extended layoff and the fact he is facing the second best flyweight in the world will prove to be too much for the Russian. I expect Benavidez to dominate throughout this fight and maybe even score a submission win en route to another run at the title.
Value Plays
Alan Jaboun
Kountermove ($4,800) DraftKings ($9,100)
Jaboun is a slight underdog in this one, however I think his style of fighting allows him a better chance than the oddsmakers think. Jaboun has 8 knockouts in 12 victories and always bring a fast pace style to the octagon. He faces a stiff test against the durable Russian Tumenov but in the mid price range on both sites I'm confident with using him in my lineups. I think a decision is a more realistic expectation for Jaboun to score a victory, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk away with a finish.
Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis
Kountermove ($4,700) DraftKings ($9,400)
Fighting in front of a home town crowd I think Derrick Lewis is flying under the fantasy radar in this one. While being a bit inconsistent during his UFC tenure, he has shown a knack for finishing his fights when he is able to pull off a victory. While his opponent Pesta shows a nice record of 10-1 it has been inflated by fighting very low competition in Russia as none of his opponents who he owns victories over even have a Wikipedia page. It's always a good idea to put a heavyweight fighter in your lineup as the chances for a KO are much higher and I think Lewis provides the best chance to produce that outcome out of the four heavyweights on this card.
Yair Rodriguez
Kountermove ($4,500) DraftKings ($10,400)
Although his price is a bit high on DraftKings to be considered "value" he is an absolute steal on Kountermove with a low price of $4,500. Rodriguez burst on the scene with his fight of the night performance win against Charles Rosa at UFC 180. I scored big on him that night and plan to do it again this Saturday. His opponent Dan Hooker is a dangerous striker and won't make it easy on him by any means, but I think Rodriguez is a bit more polished and has more tools in his bag to win and score a potential finish with his flashy strikes and ability to mix up punches and kicks.
Avoid
Rashad Evans
Kountermove ($5,100) DraftKings ($10,100)
Having not fought in nearly 2 years, Rashad Evans returns to take on Ryan Bader who has put together a 4-fight win streak in his absence. Evans is now 36 years old and could potentially be past his prime at this point in his career. Too many questions need to be answered about Evans before I'm confident enough to put him in any of my lineups, especially against Bader who has shown some serious improvements lately. That, combined with Evans knack to stop attacking during fights has me avoiding him at all costs. The former champ could still pull off a victory but I don't think he is worth the price tag as I see the fight being more technical and measured with a shot at the title potentially on the line.
Jessica "Evil" Eye
Kountermove ($5,000) DraftKings ($8,700)
Fresh off a loss to Meisha Tate, Jessica Eye returns to take on red hot contender Juliana Pena. While priced relatively low I do not think Eye is worth playing due to a terrible stylistic matchup against Pena. Eye is 1-2 in her past three and her confidence has to be at an all time low after being dominated by Tate in her last outing. On the flip side, Pena is undefeated in her UFC career (2-0) and after overcoming a near career ending injury to her knee she has returned with a vengeance. I think Eye could put up a valiant effort but ultimately will be subdued by the aggressive style of Pena who will continue to look the part as a future contender and legitimate threat to Ronda Rousey.
Sergio Pettis
Kountermove ($4,800) DraftKings ($10,200)
Sergio Pettis has been inconsistent in his UFC career thus far going 2-2 winning by decision but losing both times by TKO/sub. While some people will go with Pettis based on name value alone, I am fading him due to his tough matchup against former title challenger Chris Cariaso. While this should be an entertaining fight, both guys have a combined 1 finish in their respective UFC careers so I'm expecting the outcome will most likely be a close decision.
DraftKings Lineup
Daniel Cormier ($11000)
Rose Namajunas ($10600)
Alan Jouban ($9100)
Derrick Lewis ($9400)
Ryan Bader ($9300)
Kountermove Lineup
Daniel Cormier ($5600)
Julianna Pena ($4600)
Derrick Lewis ($4700)
Yair Rodriguez ($4500)
Rose Namajunas ($5200)
You can sign up and play Kountermove here:
Sign up at DraftKings and use my personal link below and we will both get a bonus!
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