By: Dylan Smith
The main card of UFC on Fox 15 includes 7/8 fighters who are currently ranked in the top ten of their respective divisions and a main event that will put the winner at the front of the line for a title shot.
Below I will be making my main card predictions and breaking down each fight.
Felice "Lil Bulldog" Herrig (10-5) vs Paige "12 Guage" VanZant (4-1)
Breakdown:
Kicking off the main card is a women's strawweight bout that could decide the next #1 contender in the wide open 115lb division, featuring TUF 18 alum Felice Herrig taking on rising star Paige VanZant.
VanZant will be facing the toughest test of her young career as Herrig is a true veteran in the fight game with 43 professional fights under her belt in kickboxing and MMA, far superior to "PVZ" who just celebrated her 21st birthday and won her 5th pro fight. That being said, experience alone does not win fights in the octagon and Paige VanZant has all the tools necessary to pass the test and prove all the hype surrounding her is for good reason.
This fight could actually steal the show come Saturday night and that's saying something considering this card is stacked with talent from top to bottom. I think stylistically VanZant matches up better with Herrig as she is the more well rounded fighter of the two with Herrig being mainly a kickboxer who can hold her own on the ground. VanZant will most likely come out ultra aggressive like she did in her last fight and look to shut down the striking of Herrig with constant pressure from the clinch and controlling the octagon. Herrig will have to win this fight by using good footwork to avoid the clinch/takedowns and well timed counter strikes as it will be hard to keep Paige from moving forward. Ultimately, this fight will be a great one to watch for the fans. These ladies will test each other in all facets of MMA, expect scrambles galore and exciting exchanges. I'm believing the hype and going with Paige VanZant on this one. I think her aggressive style will be too much for Felice to handle and I also believe Paige will hold a significant strength advantage and will look to utilize that by keeping Herrig on the fence and making it an ugly fight.
Prediction: Paige VanZant by Decision
Cub Swanson (21-6) vs Max "Blessed" Holloway (12-3)
Breakdown:
This featherweight clash is my pick for fight of the night on Saturday as we get to see #5 ranked Cub Swanson take on #10 Max Holloway in what should be an exciting striker vs striker match up. Holloway has a very high output rate with his strikes and likes to keep fights standing and use his fast hands and crisp boxing to overwhelm his opponents. "Blessed" is a hot prospect right now at only 23 years old and will come into this fight with his confidence at an all time high, riding a five fight winning streak with four of those coming by way of stoppage. Cub Swanson is coming into this fight after a disappointing loss to former champ Frankie Edgar. That being said, Cub remains one of the best in the division and will look to get a win streak of his own going again after winning six out of his last seven. Swanson is the more well rounded of the two but will most likely look to keep this exclusively on the feet and use his powerful hands and creative kicks to reduce the pressure of Holloway. Holloway on the other hand, will try to to put a fast pace on Swanson and keep him from finding his timing and getting comfortable.
I think the experience of Swanson will play a major factor in this fight as he has faced the best in the world for the majority of his career and is currently in his prime while Holloway has yet to reach his full potential. That's not saying that Holloway won't hold his own but I think Swanson holds an advantage over him in the ground game and striking. This will be a back and forth affair but ultimately Cub will edge out the Hawaiian youngster by controlling the center of the octagon and using his range and creative striking to hurt the durable Holloway and take it to a decision.
Prediction: Cub Swanson by Decision
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (21-3) vs Chris Camozzi (21-9)
Breakdown:
Originally slated to be a high profile bout between two of the divisions top contenders, Jacare vs former Olympic wrestling medalist Yoel Romero was cancelled just 8 days out from the day of the fight. The list of guys who would be willing to fight the #2 Middleweight in the world on eight days notice is an extremely short one. Matter of fact it seems like it was only one name long, and that name is Chris Camozzi. After being released by the UFC after a 4 fight losing streak Camozzi returns by doing the promotion a favor and securing a slot in a co-main event of a high profile card. This is by far the most lopsided fight on the card as Camozzi is currently an 11-1 underdog after already having fought Jacare in 2013 and losing by first round submission. Jacare is one of the best middleweights in the world was he is a former multiple time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu champion and has really shown improvements in his shrinking throughout his tenure in the octagon. This fight doesn't do much for him in terms of moving up the ladder but I wouldn't be surprised to see him fighting for a title by years end.
The element that makes this fight interesting is the fact that Camozzi has nothing to lose and everything to gain. If he loses the oh well, he was supposed to, but if he does somehow beat Jacare then that will automatically launch him into the top ten of the division and take his career to the next level. That being said, I don't think this fight will be much different than the first and I see Jacare putting away Camozzi by whatever he wants in this one. Jacare is just too good right now and the disparity of skills between these two fighters was already seen two years ago and Jacare has been improving since. I'll take Jacare by first round TKO as I think he will look to showcase his striking and set himself up for a top five opponent to make way for a title shot.
Prediction: Jacare by T(KO)
Luke Rockhold (13-2) vs Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (22-5)
The main event of the evening is an exciting clash between two former champions who have their eyes set on capturing gold once again. Lyoto Machida will be fighting for the 20th time in the octagon, he brings with him a very complete skill set highlighted by his signature tricky, elusive, karate style that has given his opponents fits throughout his career. Luke Rockhold comes into this fight with only one blemish on his UFC record, losing to #1 contender Vitor Belfort in his UFC debut. He has gone a tear since, finishing all three of his opponents and making a case that he deserves the next shot at the title. A win against Machida who is one of the best fighters on the entire UFC roster will undoubtedly give him that opportunity. Rockhold actually possesses a skill set very similar to Machida as he likes to strike from a distance and use kicks as his primary attack method while also having a savvy submission game.
With the similarities in styles it will be interesting to see how each fighter reacts and what gameplan they try to implement as the fight goes on. I think in the early going of the fight it will be tough for Rockhold to adapt to the elusiveness and timing of Machida. I can see Machida stealing the first two or maybe even three rounds due to throwing Rockhold off his game by using his karate style to avoid punches and land his own. However, if Rockhold doesn't get overly frustrated and is able stay patient while he adjusts then he might be able to make a late rally and take over the fight. I think this fight will be very closely contested throughout but unless Rockhold is able to finish Machida early on then it will be extremely tough to beat him in a 5 round fight. That's why I'm going with the slight underdog in Machida to win this fight because although they have similar styles they both use them in different ways and I think Machida will be more effective by being patient, landing counter strikes and using his signature blitz of punches that helped him win a championship.
Prediction: Lyoto Machida by Decision
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